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Detect high-risk Polymarkets before disputed resolutions cost you money PolyGuard - Resolution Risk Scanner **Summary**: Detect high-risk markets before disputed resolutions cost you money --- ## Description **Stop Losing Money to Disputed Resolutions** You did everything right. You researched the market, analyzed the probabilities, placed your bet with conviction. The outcome happened exactly as you predicted. And then you lost anyway—because UMA voters decided the resolution criteria meant something different than what you reasonably understood. This isn't hypothetical. It happens on Polymarket regularly. PolyGuard scans markets for resolution risk before you trade, identifying ambiguous language and subjective criteria that could lead to disputed outcomes. Know the danger before your money is on the line. --- **The Hidden Risk in Prediction Markets** When you trade on Polymarket, you're not just betting on real-world outcomes. You're betting on how those outcomes will be interpreted under the market's resolution criteria. And that interpretation isn't always straightforward. Polymarket uses UMA's decentralized oracle system to resolve disputes. When a market's outcome is contested, anonymous UMA token holders vote on the resolution. These voters may have different interpretations than you. They may prioritize different evidence. They may reach conclusions that contradict what seems obvious. Consider some real examples: A market asked whether TikTok would be "banned" in the US by a certain date. TikTok went offline briefly, then came back hours later after government assurances. Was it banned? UMA voters said yes. Many traders who bet "no"—reasoning that a temporary outage followed by restoration wasn't a real ban—lost their positions. A market about a public figure's actions used language that could be interpreted multiple ways. Photographic evidence seemed to support one outcome, but UMA voters decided differently based on their reading of the criteria. These aren't edge cases. They're structural features of how prediction markets with decentralized resolution work. The question isn't whether disputed resolutions will happen—it's whether you'll be caught in one. --- **What Makes a Market Risky** Not all markets carry equal resolution risk. Some have clear, objective criteria: "Will the official unemployment rate published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics exceed 5% in January 2025?" Others are riddled with ambiguity: "Will Company X be widely considered successful by the end of the year?" PolyGuard analyzes market text to identify specific risk factors: **Subjective Language** Phrases like "sole discretion," "in the opinion of," or "reasonable judgment" are red flags. They explicitly acknowledge that resolution depends on someone's interpretation rather than objective facts. When you see these phrases, you're not betting on what will happen—you're betting on how someone will perceive what happened. **Vague Criteria** Words like "soon," "near future," or "significant" lack precise definitions. What counts as "soon"? A week? A month? A year? Without specificity, these terms become battlegrounds for interpretation during resolution. **Multiple Interpretation Paths** Some markets are structured in ways that allow different reasonable readings. "Will X happen or be announced?" creates two potential resolution triggers with potentially different timings and verification standards. **High-Risk Categories** Historical data shows certain categories experience more disputes than others. Political markets, cryptocurrency predictions, AI developments, and cultural events tend to involve more subjective judgment calls than, say, sports outcomes with official scoreboards. **Missing Verification Sources** Markets that don't specify authoritative sources for resolution leave room for argument about what evidence counts. "Official government announcement" is clearer than "credible reports." --- **How PolyGuard Works** PolyGuard runs continuous analysis on active Polymarket markets, scanning resolution criteria for risk indicators. Each market receives a score from 1 to 5: **Score 1-2 (Low Risk)**: Clear, objective resolution criteria. Specific dates, official sources, verifiable numbers. Lower likelihood of dispute. **Score 3 (Medium Risk)**: Some ambiguous language detected. Resolution criteria could reasonably be interpreted multiple ways. Review carefully before trading. **Score 4-5 (High Risk)**: Multiple red flags present. Subjective language, vague timeframes, or historically disputed category. Proceed with significant caution. The scoring algorithm weighs multiple factors: - Presence of high-risk phrases (+2 points each) - Presence of medium-risk phrases (+1 point each) - Presence of clear resolution indicators (-1 point each) - Category historical dispute rate (+1 point if elevated) - Vague timeframe language (+1 point if detected) - Multiple interpretation structures (+1 point if present) This produces a nuanced assessment rather than a binary safe/unsafe classification. --- **Real-Time Protection While You Browse** When you visit Polymarket, PolyGuard activates automatically. A floating panel appears showing markets with elevated risk scores. You'll see: - Total count of flagged markets - Risk score and level for each - Specific reasons why the market was flagged - Direct links to view the full market The panel is draggable—position it wherever works for your workflow. Minimize it when you need focus. Close it entirely if you prefer using only the popup dashboard. For individual markets, PolyGuard injects warning badges directly into the Polymarket interface. High-risk markets display a warning indicator next to their titles. Hover over the badge to see the specific risk factors identified. This integration means you don't need to actively check PolyGuard—it brings warnings to your attention as you naturally browse. --- **Popup Dashboard for Comprehensive Analysis** Click the PolyGuard icon in your browser toolbar to access the full dashboard. Here you'll find: **Risk Alerts Tab**: Complete list of all markets with elevated risk scores. Each entry shows the market question, risk score, category, and specific reasons for the flag. Click any market to open it directly on Polymarket. **Statistics Bar**: Quick overview showing total markets scanned, count of high-risk markets detected, and time of last scan. **Risk Guide Tab**: Reference explaining the scoring methodology, what different risk levels mean, and specific red flag phrases to watch for. Useful for understanding why PolyGuard flagged a particular market. The dashboard provides deeper analysis than the floating panel, letting you review all flagged markets in one place before deciding where to allocate your capital. --- **What PolyGuard Detects** The extension scans for specific language patterns associated with resolution disputes: **High-Risk Phrases** - "sole discretion" - "in the opinion of" - "subjective" - "reasonable judgment" - "may be interpreted" - "appears to" - "seems to" - "generally accepted" - "widely believed" - "common understanding" **Medium-Risk Phrases** - "at the discretion" - "may consider" - "could be" - "might be" - "potentially" - "arguably" - "depending on interpretation" - "as determined by" - "based on available evidence" - "credible sources" **Low-Risk Indicators** (reduce score) - "official announcement" - "government source" - "verified by" - "published data" - "specific date" - "exact number" - "official results" - "court ruling" - "regulatory filing" **High-Risk Categories** - Politics - Cryptocurrency - Artificial Intelligence - Culture - Social Media These lists are based on analysis of historical Polymarket disputes and the language patterns that preceded them. --- **Limitations and Honest Expectations** PolyGuard is a risk detection tool, not a guarantee against losses. Important caveats: **Language Analysis Has Limits**: The tool scans for known risk patterns in text. It cannot predict every possible dispute scenario or account for factors not reflected in the resolution criteria. **False Positives Occur**: Some markets flagged as risky may resolve without any dispute. The presence of ambiguous language doesn't guarantee a problem—it indicates elevated probability of one. **False Negatives Possible**: Markets with low risk scores can still face disputes. Novel dispute patterns or issues not captured by the current phrase list won't be flagged. **Not Legal or Financial Advice**: PolyGuard provides information about resolution criteria characteristics. It doesn't tell you whether to trade or not. Your trading decisions remain your responsibility. **Resolution Outcomes Unpredictable**: Even when you understand the risks, you cannot control how UMA voters will decide. PolyGuard helps you make informed choices about which risks to accept. The goal is risk awareness, not risk elimination. Some traders may choose to avoid high-risk markets entirely. Others may accept the risk for markets where they have high conviction. PolyGuard gives you the information to make that choice consciously. --- **Privacy and Security** PolyGuard operates entirely in your browser with minimal permissions: **What We Access**: - Polymarket's public API (to fetch market data) - Polymarket website (to inject risk warnings) - Local storage (to save your preferences) **What We Don't Access**: - Your wallet or private keys - Your trading history or positions - Your personal information - Any data from other websites **What We Don't Do**: - Execute trades on your behalf - Send your data to external servers - Track your browsing behavior - Require account creation or login The extension fetches the same public market data visible to anyone on Polymarket. Risk analysis happens locally in your browser. Your trading activity remains private. --- **Technical Implementation** PolyGuard is built on Chrome's Manifest V3 architecture, the latest extension standard with enhanced security: - **Service Worker**: Background process fetches market data and performs risk analysis - **Content Script**: Injects floating panel and badges on Polymarket pages - **Popup**: Dashboard interface for comprehensive risk review - **Alarms API**: Schedules periodic rescans every 5 minutes The extension is lightweight and efficient. Risk calculations happen in-memory without persistent database storage. Market data is refreshed regularly to capture new listings and criteria updates. --- **Why Resolution Risk Matters More Than You Think** Prediction markets are often described as truth-seeking mechanisms. Prices aggregate information from many participants to produce probability estimates. This works remarkably well—when resolution is clear. But the mechanism breaks down when resolution itself becomes uncertain. If traders can't predict how a market will be resolved, prices no longer reflect probabilities of real-world outcomes. They reflect probabilities of interpretation outcomes. This is a fundamentally different—and often more difficult—prediction problem. Consider the game theory. In a market with ambiguous resolution criteria, sophisticated traders don't just analyze the underlying question. They analyze how UMA voters might interpret the criteria. They consider precedents from similar disputes. They factor in the political dynamics of the voting pool. They may even position themselves to profit from anticipated misinterpretations. Retail traders often don't think about any of this. They read the market question, form a view on the real-world outcome, and trade accordingly. When resolution goes sideways, they're blindsided. PolyGuard levels this playing field. By flagging resolution risk explicitly, it prompts you to think about interpretation before you trade—the same analysis sophisticated participants already perform. --- **The Cost of Ignoring Resolution Risk** Every disputed resolution has losers. Sometimes those losers had the "right" prediction about the real world but the "wrong" understanding of how the market would be interpreted. The money they lose doesn't disappear—it transfers to traders who better anticipated the resolution mechanics. This isn't about fairness or unfairness. It's about understanding what game you're playing. If you think you're betting on real-world outcomes but you're actually betting on interpretation outcomes, you're playing a different game than you realize. And playing the wrong game is expensive. PolyGuard makes the game visible. When you see a high risk score, you're being reminded: this market's resolution involves interpretation, not just observation. Price your position accordingly—or choose a clearer market. --- **Getting Started** Installation takes seconds: 1. Add PolyGuard from the Chrome Web Store 2. Navigate to polymarket.com 3. The floating panel appears automatically 4. Review flagged markets before trading No configuration required. The extension begins scanning immediately with sensible defaults. Adjust the panel position to your preference. Check the popup dashboard for comprehensive analysis. --- **For Serious Polymarket Traders** If you trade on Polymarket regularly, you've probably experienced or witnessed disputed resolutions. You know the frustration of being "right" about reality but "wrong" about interpretation. You understand that resolution risk is real and costly. PolyGuard won't eliminate this risk. No tool can. But it will make the risk visible before your money is committed. It will prompt you to read resolution criteria more carefully. It will help you distinguish between markets where you're betting on outcomes and markets where you're betting on interpretations. That awareness is valuable. In prediction markets, as in most competitive arenas, the participants who understand the rules most deeply tend to win. PolyGuard helps you see rules that might otherwise remain hidden until they cost you money. --- **Resolution Risk Is the Risk Nobody Talks About** Market risk gets discussed constantly. Liquidity risk gets some attention. Counterparty risk matters less on blockchain-based platforms. But resolution risk—the risk that your winning position becomes a losing position because of interpretation disputes—rarely gets the focus it deserves. This is partly because resolution risk is uncomfortable to acknowledge. It undermines the clean narrative of prediction markets as pure information aggregation mechanisms. It introduces human judgment into what's supposed to be an objective process. It reminds us that even decentralized systems ultimately depend on people making decisions. PolyGuard makes resolution risk a first-class concern. Not to discourage trading—prediction markets provide genuine value—but to encourage informed trading. The best traders already think about these issues. PolyGuard helps everyone else catch up. --- **Built for the Polymarket Ecosystem** PolyGuard is purpose-built for Polymarket. It understands Polymarket's market structure, API, and resolution mechanisms. The risk phrases and categories reflect Polymarket-specific patterns observed in actual disputes. This isn't a generic "text analysis" tool repurposed for prediction markets. It's a specialized instrument designed for a specific problem: helping Polymarket traders identify and evaluate resolution risk before they trade. --- *PolyGuard: See the risk before you take it.*